The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index declined, recording 67.4 points, which is lower than expectations (76.0) and the previous reading (77.2).

• US crude oil inventories recorded a decline of 1.362 million barrels, which was more than expected (-1.430M) but lower than the previous reading (7.265M).

• The initial jobless claims index rose to 231K, which exceeded expectations (212K) and the previous reading (209K).

Eurozone

• The services PMI recorded a growth of 53.3 points, which exceeded expectations (52.9) and the previous reading (51.5).

United Kingdom

• Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged, keeping the key interest rate at 5.25%, in line with market expectations.

• The GDP increased in the first quarter of 2024, recording a growth of 0.6%, which exceeded expectations (0.4%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).

• The industrial production index rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.2%, which exceeded expectations (-0.5%) and the previous reading (1.0%).

• The Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, registering a growth of 53.0 points, which exceeded expectations (50.4) and the previous reading (50.2).

Canada

• The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index rose by 63.0 points, which exceeded expectations (58.1) and the previous reading (57.5).

• The rate of change in employment increased, recording 90.4K new jobs, a rate that exceeded expectations (20.9K) and the previous reading (-2.2K).

• The unemployment rate was 6.1%, which is lower than expectations (6.2%) but consistent with the previous reading.

Australia

• The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the main borrowing interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations.

China

• The export index rose on an annual basis, recording a growth of 1.5%, which exceeded expectations (1.0%) and the previous reading (-7.5%).

• The import index rose on an annual basis, recording a growth of 8.4%, which exceeded expectations (5.4%) and the previous reading (-1.9%).

• China’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 3.201 trillion US dollars, which is lower than expectations (3.23T) and the previous reading (3.246T).

• The Consumer Price Index rose on an annual basis, registering a growth of 0.3%, which exceeded expectations and the previous reading (0.1%).

• The producer price index recorded an annual contraction of 2.5%, which is lower than expectations (-2.3%) and higher than the previous reading (-2.8%).

• New loans decreased to 730 billion yuan, which is lower than expectations (1,200B) and the previous reading (3,090B).

Japan

• The services PMI recorded a growth of 54.3 points, which is lower than expectations (54.6) but higher than the previous reading (54.1).

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting income rates, including bonuses and unemployment, in Britain, and the producer price index in both Switzerland and the United States of America.

• On Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the consumer price and retail sales indices in the United States of America, in addition to the US crude oil inventories index.

• Regarding Thursday, the markets are awaiting the indicators of gross domestic product and industrial production in Japan, the rates of change in employment and unemployment in Australia, the indicators of building permits, the initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Industries, and industrial production in the United States of America.

• Finally, on Friday, the indicators of investment in fixed assets, industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate in China, in addition to the consumer price index in the Eurozone, were released.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0760, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0730, 1.0693, and 1.0663. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0797, 1.0827, and 1.0864.

GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2520, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2445, 1.2370, and 1.2296. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2594, 1.2669, and 1.2743.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 154.81 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 153.67, 151.60, and 150.47. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 156.88, 158.01, and 160.09.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2353 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2321, 2268, and 2237. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2406, 2438, and 2491.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 83.34 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 82.15, 81.51 and 80.32. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 83.98, 85.17, and 85.81.

US30:

If the pivot point of 39,398 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 39,078, 38,514 and 38,194. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,962, 40,282, and 40,846.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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