Last week saw significant economic developments across major regions. In the U.S., some Fed officials favored a smaller rate cut, with inflation metrics like CPI (2.4%) and PPI (1.8%) coming in slightly above expectations, while consumer sentiment dipped and jobless claims rose. The Eurozone reported modest retail sales growth (0.2%), and the UK saw GDP growth of 1.0% and stronger industrial production. Canada reported a rise in employment and a drop in unemployment to 6.5%, while New Zealand’s central bank cut rates by 50 basis points. In China, foreign reserves grew, but both CPI (0.0%) and PPI (-2.8%) showed deflationary trends. Meanwhile, Japan’s household spending surged by 2.0%, beating forecasts.
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NZD/USD:
Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75%, in line with market expectations. This marks the second consecutive rate cut this year, following a 25 basis point cut earlier. If the 0.6110 pivot point is broken for NZD/USD, support levels may be targeted at 0.6047, 0.5989, and 0.5926. On the upside, resistance levels could be targeted at 0.6168, 0.6230, and 0.6289.
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Exxon Mobil:
Exxon Mobil’s stock has risen by about 17% since the low of $107.77 on September 11, 2024, reaching a peak of $126.34 on October 7. The stock closed at $123.61 on Friday, October 11. The market is looking forward to Exxon’s Q3 earnings release on October 25, 2024, with expected earnings of $2.02 per share, down from $2.25 per share in the previous reading. Revenue is expected to reach $96.51 billion, compared to $90.76 billion in the previous reading. If the $121.66 pivot point is broken for Exxon’s stock, support levels may be targeted at $118.13, $111.43, and $107.90. On the upside, resistance levels could be targeted at $128.36, $131.89, and $138.59.
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Silver:
Silver prices have risen by about 25% since the low of $26.45 on August 8, 2024, reaching a peak of $32.96 on October 4, 2024. Silver closed at $31.53 on Friday, October 11. Silver is benefiting from several factors, including the surge in gold prices, which hit a record $2,685 on September 26, 2024. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month, with further cuts expected, which supports silver as a non-yielding asset. Silver also has widespread industrial applications, including in medical supplies and electronics.
If the $32.25 pivot point is broken for silver, support levels may be targeted at $31.29, $30.18, and $29.22. On the upside, resistance levels could be targeted at $33.36, $34.32, and $35.43.
Dow Jones:
The Dow Jones index reached a record high of 42,910 points on Friday, October 11, 2024. The index has risen by 12% since its low of 38,394 points on August 5, 2024. The Dow Jones is currently supported by stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of New York Mellon, along with expectations of further rate cuts. If the 42,187 pivot point is broken for the Dow, support levels may be targeted at 42,013, 41,673, and 41,500. On the upside, resistance levels could be targeted at 42,526, 42,700, and 43,040.
Key events for this week:
The markets await several key economic indicators this week:
- Today, the Swiss Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released.
- On Tuesday, the focus will be on Japan’s industrial production, UK income (including bonuses), UK unemployment, Eurozone industrial production, and the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- On Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from New Zealand and the UK will be anticipated.
- Thursday will see the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, with markets expecting a 25 basis point cut from 3.50% to 3.25%. Japan’s export and import figures, Australian employment change and unemployment data, and Eurozone CPI will also be released. In the U.S., retail sales, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, and crude oil inventories are due.
- Finally, on Friday, Japan’s CPI, China’s fixed asset investment, GDP, industrial production, and retail sales, along with UK retail sales and U.S. building permits, will be published.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
