The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The Consumer Confidence Index recorded 100.4 points, which exceeded expectations (100.0) and the previous reading (101.3).

• The core durable goods orders index declined, recording a contraction of 0.1%, which is lower than expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (0.4%).

• The new home sales index declined, recording 619K, which is lower than expectations (636K) and the previous reading (698K).

• The initial jobless claims declined, recording 233K, which is lower than expectations (236K) and the previous reading (239K).

• US crude oil inventories rose by 3.591 million barrels, which exceeded expectations (-2.600M) and the previous reading (-2.547M).

• The GDP recorded a quarterly growth of 1.4%, which exceeded expectations (1.3%) and the previous reading (3.4%).

• The core personal consumption expenditures price index recorded on an annual basis 2.6%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (2.8%).

• The pending home sales index recorded a contraction of 2.1%, which is lower than expectations (0.6%) but higher than the previous reading (-7.7%).

• The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index recorded 68.2 points, which exceeded expectations (65.6) but lower than the previous reading (69.1).

United Kingdom

• The GDP increased on a quarterly basis, registering a growth of 0.7%, which exceeded expectations (0.6%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).

Canada

• The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9%, which exceeded expectations (2.6%) and the previous reading (2.7%).

Japan

• The Consumer Price Index rose on an annual basis in Tokyo, recording 2.1%, which exceeded expectations (2.0%) and the previous reading (1.9%).

China

• The non-manufacturing PMI declined, registering a growth of 50.5 points, which is lower than expectations (51.0) and the previous reading (51.1).

• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded a contraction of 49.5 points, a percentage that was consistent with expectations and the previous reading.

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• Today, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in Japan, Australia, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, and retail sales in Australia, and the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index in China, in addition to the Construction Spending and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in the United States of America.

• On Tuesday, the markets await the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

It releases consumer price indices, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone, and the job opportunities index in the United States of America.

• On Wednesday, markets await the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The services PMI is issued in Japan, Australia, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, the services PMI from Caixin in China, the producer price index in the euro area, the indicators of initial jobless claims, the change in private non-farm sector jobs issued by ADP, the services PMI issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), factory orders, and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America.

• On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index in Switzerland and the Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index in Britain will be released.

• Finally, on Friday, the indicators of the non-farm payrolls report (NFP), the unemployment rate, and average hourly wages were released, in addition to the indicators of the rate of change in employment, the unemployment rate, and the Ivey for Purchasing Managers in Canada.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0707, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0668, 1.0626, and 1.0588. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0749, 1.0788, and 1.0829.

GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2651, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2601, 1.2561, and 1.2511. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2691, 1.2741, and 1.2781.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 160.30 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 159.32, 157.82, and 156.85. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 161.80, 162.77, and 164.28.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2330 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2311, 2285, and 2265. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2356, 2376, and 2401.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 86.03 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 84.84, 83.28 and 82.09. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 87.59, 88.78, and 90.34.

US30:

If the pivot point of 39,584 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 39,169, 38,869 and 38,454. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,884, 40,299, and 40,599.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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